Why is coffee so expensive right now?

Several supply shocks landed on top of each other rather than one cause. Brazil, which produces roughly 40% of world coffee, had consecutive drought-damaged harvests. Vietnam, the dominant robusta producer, was hit by drought and then storms. Exchange-monitored inventories fell to multi-decade lows, which removes the buffer that normally absorbs a bad season. A US tariff threat in April 2025 added a further shock. Arabica peaked near 410 cents per pound in November 2025 against a 2019-2020 average of about 141.

What is the C market?

The Coffee C contract on ICE, ticker KC, is the world benchmark price for washed arabica. Each contract is 37,500 pounds of green coffee, deliverable from any of 19 named origin countries into licensed warehouses at specified US and European ports, with set premiums and discounts by origin and port. It trades in cents per pound with a minimum tick of 5/100 of a cent, worth $18.75 per contract. Robusta trades on a separate London contract in dollars per tonne.

Did coffee prices come back down?

Partly, and not to where they were. Arabica eased from its November 2025 peak near 410 cents to around 359 cents by July 2026, having dipped to about 308 in June. That is still roughly two and a half times the 2019-2020 average. Forecasters generally describe the current situation as a higher floor with continuing volatility rather than a return to prior levels.

Why did my supermarket coffee go up more than the futures price suggests?

Retail lags and smooths the futures market rather than tracking it. Roasters buy forward, so a spike takes months to reach the shelf and then tends to stay once it arrives. Green coffee is also only part of a retail price: roasting, packaging, freight, labour and retail margin all rose over the same period. US packaged coffee prices jumped about 21% year on year in August 2025, the fastest such move in roughly three decades, well after the futures peak had begun.

Is climate change the reason coffee is expensive?

It is the reason the shocks keep coming, rather than the direct cause of any single price move. Arabica is narrowly adapted and genetically uniform, so heat and drought hit it hard, and modelling has consistently projected shrinking suitable growing area. The immediate cause of the 2024 to 2025 run was specific weather in specific places. The reason such weather keeps recurring, and why the market now prices a permanent risk premium, is structural.

Will coffee prices fall in 2027?

Nobody knows, and be sceptical of anyone confident. What is knowable: Brazil's 2026/27 crop is forecast at a record, which is downward pressure, and inventories are rebuilding from very low levels. Against that, arabica remains climate-exposed and EU deforestation rules add compliance cost from the end of 2026. The honest answer is that supply looks better than it did, and the structural risks that produced this run have not gone away.

Coffee Business

Why Coffee Got So Expensive

By Coffee Studies Editorial·Published September 30, 2026·10 min read

Quick answer

Arabica averaged about 141 US cents per pound across 2019 and 2020. It peaked near 410 cents in November 2025, roughly 2.9 times that base, and sat around 359 cents in July 2026. The causes stack rather than compete: back-to-back drought in Brazil, which grows about 40% of the world's coffee, storms and drought in Vietnam, exchange inventories falling to multi-decade lows, and briefly a US tariff scare. Robusta, the cheap species, rose further in relative terms than arabica did, at about 3.7 times its own base. Prices have eased from the peak without returning to anything like the old normal.

Figure

Arabica coffee, annual average price, 2018-2026

Monthly Other Milds arabica indicator averaged by calendar year, in US cents per pound. 2026 covers January to July only, and its partial-year average is 333. The reference line is the 2019-2020 average of 141 cents. The dip that fooled people runs 255 in 2022, down to 206 in 2023, back to 255 in 2024, then 383 in 2025.^[1]

Your coffee costs about three times what it did five years ago. You saw it on the supermarket shelf, in your own shop, or in your roast bill. You were not imagining any of it. And the reason is better than "inflation."

Where every price on this page comes from, and in what money

Every figure here comes from the monthly International Coffee Organization and IMF indicator series published by FRED, so you can open it and check any of them yourself.^[1]^[2] All prices are US cents per pound of green coffee.

141 cents a pound

what a pound of green arabica cost across 2019 and 2020. Two decades of quiet sat near this level, and it is the price to stop budgeting against^[1]

410 cents

the top, in November 2025. About 2.9 times the old normal, and the month your roaster was buying into^[1]

359 cents

July 2026. Off the peak, and still about 2.6 times the old normal, which is the number to plan against^[1]

How much more will you pay?

About two and a half times what you paid before 2021. You got there one step at a time. Coffee did not spike and fall back. It stepped up again and again over five years.

Two things in that line should change what you do.

Do not wait for the dip. The price fell once in the middle of the run. Plenty of people called the top. It went back up the next year, then higher the year after that. If you timed your buying on that dip, you got hurt.

A quieter year is not a cheap year. This year sits well under last year and well over every year before 2021. If you are still budgeting against 2019, you are budgeting against a price that is gone.

Who sets the price you pay?

One deal on the New York exchange sets the world price. Your bag is priced off it. You will never trade it yourself. You will feel every move it makes, so it is worth five minutes of your time.

It is called the Coffee C, ticker KC. It is not an idea on a screen. Whoever sells one has to hand over real green coffee in a real store room. That is why your price moves the way it does.

The Coffee C deal, in full ^[3]
Size of one contract	37,500 pounds of washed arabica
Where the coffee may come from	any of 19 named origin countries
Where it is handed over	licensed warehouses at specified US and European ports, with set premiums and discounts by origin and port
Quoted in	US cents per pound
Smallest move it can make	5/100 of a cent, worth $18.75 per contract
Delivery months	March, May, July, September and December
Where the cheap bean trades instead	a separate London contract, quoted in dollars per tonne

Three things follow from that, and all three land on you.

What stands between a bad harvest and your bill is a store room. The deal pays out in real coffee. So the coffee already sitting in a licensed store room is your whole cushion. Full room, and a poor crop costs you nothing. Near empty, and it will cost you plenty.

Not all coffee counts. Only washed arabica from those 19 countries can be handed over. Most natural-process Brazilian coffee cannot, and no robusta can at all. So the price you pay can jump on the weather in one slice of the world crop.

The farmer does not get what you see quoted. A grower is paid that world price, plus or minus a difference. The difference covers where the bean grew, how good it is and what it is certified as. A high world price does not hand the farm a high price, and we go into why in our fair trade article.

Why did your coffee get so expensive?

Four things landed on top of each other. Not one of them would have done this to your bill alone.

1. Brazil, twice

Brazil grows about 40% of the world's coffee, so Brazilian weather is your weather. Two dry seasons in a row cut the harvest. The second one did something worse to you: it caught the trees while they were in bloom.

A tree in bloom is next year's crop, not this year's. So a dry spell today prices in a bean you will not buy for another year. That is why the run lasted, and why you could not wait it out.

The Brazilian harvest figures, and why flowering matters

Consecutive seasons of drought damaged harvests, with reported production declines around 20% in the worst affected period, and below-average rainfall during the flowering stage, which sets the following year's crop rather than the current one.^[4]

2. Vietnam, and the squeeze on the cheap bean

If your cheap coffee went up more than your good coffee, here is the reason. Vietnam grows most of the world's robusta, the cheap bean. It got a dry year and then storm damage.

The cheap bean then did something you would not expect. It rose further than the good one.

The two beans, and how far each one went	Old normal, 2019-2020	The top	Times over
Arabica, the good bean ^[1]	about 141 cents a pound	410 cents, November 2025	about 2.9
Robusta, the cheap bean ^[2]	about 71 cents a pound	263 cents, February 2025	about 3.7

That lands in your basket. Robusta goes into instant coffee and into most cheap supermarket blend. So the budget end of the shelf took the bigger knock. The gap between cheap coffee and good coffee got smaller, and it has stayed smaller.

The Vietnam figures and the robusta peak

Vietnam dominates robusta, and it had drought followed by storms, with reported production declines of around 20% in 2023/24. Vietnamese export prices rose sharply through 2024. Against a 2019-2020 base of about 71 cents per pound, robusta peaked near 263 cents in February 2025, roughly 3.7 times its baseline, against arabica's 2.9 times.^[2]

3. The world's spare coffee ran out

This is the one that turned a bad harvest into your problem. The world keeps a cushion of coffee in licensed store rooms. During the run it fell to its lowest level in more than twenty years.

With a full cushion, a 20% cut in the Brazilian harvest is a story about next year. With an empty one it is a scramble, and you pay for the scramble.

How low the cushion got

Exchange-monitored arabica stocks fell to multi-year lows during the run, and global ending stocks for 2024/25 dropped around 6.6% to roughly 20.9 million bags, reported as a 24-year low.^[5]

4. A tax scare at the US border, called a tariff

A tax on coffee is a tax you cannot dodge. In April 2025 the US threatened one. Coffee was let off in the end. The market had already priced the threat, though, and by then you had paid for it.

Keep the reason in mind, because it will come round again. You cannot grow coffee at any real scale in the mainland United States. So a tax on it gives you nothing home-grown to switch to. The market knows that and prices it the same day.

The tariff dates and the export figure

In April 2025 US tariff threats hit coffee, and although coffee was ultimately exempted, the shock priced through before the exemption arrived. Brazilian exports to the US reportedly fell about 46% in August 2025.

Why did your supermarket bag go up more than the market did?

Because the shelf follows the market late, and then sits still. You watched the world price ease from late 2025 while your bag kept climbing. That is not a trick on you. That is how the chain works.

Your roaster bought your coffee months ago. A roaster buys forward, so a jump in the world price reaches your shelf late. Once it is on the shelf it tends to stay there, because nobody cuts a price in a hurry.

What the shelf did, and when
US packaged coffee price, August 2025	up about 21% year on year, reported as the fastest such move in roughly three decades, well after the futures run had begun

Green coffee is only part of what you pay. Roasting, packing, freight, labour and the shop's own cut all went up over the same window. In a bag of coffee the green bean is a minority of what you hand over. In a $5 drink it is a small minority. That is why your drink went up by less than your bag did.

Your shop and your roaster feel it in different places. A coffee shop pays most of its money out in labour and rent. A roaster pays most of it out for green coffee. So if you roast, this run hurt you far worse than it hurt the shop you sell to. We go into that split in our profit margin article.

Is this the new normal?

Your floor has moved up, and it is going to stay bumpy. You will not see the old price again soon. You should not plan as though you will.

Some of it is good news for your budget. Brazil's next crop is forecast at a record. Vietnam is coming back. The cushion of spare coffee is filling again. The world price even dipped once in the summer before bouncing back.

The thing that caused all this has not changed. Arabica is a narrow, inbred crop. Every tree is close kin to the next, so heat and dry weather hit the whole crop at once. We go into why in our article on its genetic diversity. Model after model has it losing good growing land as the world warms. A crop with no slack in it meets wilder weather every decade. Expect the market to keep pricing that risk on to you.

And a new cost lands on you at the end of 2026. If your coffee goes into the EU, you will have to trace every bean back to the plot it grew on. Whatever you make of the rule, it adds cost and paperwork. The chain it lands on has just been through the wringer.

So your supply looks far better than it did, and your price is off the top. The thing that caused the run is still sitting there. Be careful with anyone who promises you 141 cents again.

The next crop, the summer dip, the EU rule and the climate modelling

Brazil's 2026/27 crop is forecast at a record, with USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service projecting around 71.9 million bags, up about 14% year on year, and Brazil's own Conab raising its estimate to a record 66.7 million bags.^[4] Vietnam's production is recovering too, and inventories are rebuilding from very low levels. Arabica dipped to about 308 cents in June 2026 before recovering to 359 in July.^[1]

EU deforestation rules require plot-level traceability for coffee entering the EU, with compliance for large operators from 30 December 2026.

Arabica is a narrowly adapted, genetically uniform crop, and modelling has consistently projected shrinking suitable area as the climate warms.^[6]^[7]

What should you do about it?

If you just drink the stuff. The budget end took the bigger knock, so the gap between cheap coffee and good coffee is narrower than it was in 2019. Trading up costs you less than it used to. Buy whole bean and grind it at home as well. Ground coffee goes stale faster, so a bag of whole bean goes further.

If you run a coffee shop. Green coffee is a small share of what you charge for a drink. So a doubled world price hits you less hard than it hits your roaster. Your exposure is the wholesale bag. Ask your roaster whether they price you off a forward deal or off today's market. Ask before you sign for next year.

If you roast. You already know. The people hurt worst were the ones holding a shelf price still while the green bean doubled under them. The lesson most of them drew: shorten the gap between buying green and repricing the shelf.

The short version

You pay about two and a half times what you paid before 2021. A pound of arabica went from about 141 cents in 2019-2020 to a top near 410 in November 2025. It sat at 359 in July 2026.

Four things stacked up on you:

Two dry Brazilian seasons that caught the trees in bloom as well as the harvest.
A dry year and then storm damage in Vietnam.
The world's spare coffee at its lowest in more than twenty years.
A tax scare at the US border.

Your cheap coffee rose further than your good coffee. It went to 3.7 times its old normal against 2.9, which is why the budget shelf went first. Your bag moved later than the market, and it moved stickier. Your roaster buys forward, and green coffee is only part of what a bag costs you.

The price has eased. Your floor is higher than it was, and the crop is as fragile as it ever was.

Frequently asked questions

Why is coffee so expensive right now?: Several supply shocks landed on top of each other rather than one cause. Brazil, which produces roughly 40% of world coffee, had consecutive drought-damaged harvests. Vietnam, the dominant robusta producer, was hit by drought and then storms. Exchange-monitored inventories fell to multi-decade lows, which removes the buffer that normally absorbs a bad season. A US tariff threat in April 2025 added a further shock. Arabica peaked near 410 cents per pound in November 2025 against a 2019-2020 average of about 141.
What is the C market?: The Coffee C contract on ICE, ticker KC, is the world benchmark price for washed arabica. Each contract is 37,500 pounds of green coffee, deliverable from any of 19 named origin countries into licensed warehouses at specified US and European ports, with set premiums and discounts by origin and port. It trades in cents per pound with a minimum tick of 5/100 of a cent, worth $18.75 per contract. Robusta trades on a separate London contract in dollars per tonne.
Did coffee prices come back down?: Partly, and not to where they were. Arabica eased from its November 2025 peak near 410 cents to around 359 cents by July 2026, having dipped to about 308 in June. That is still roughly two and a half times the 2019-2020 average. Forecasters generally describe the current situation as a higher floor with continuing volatility rather than a return to prior levels.
Why did my supermarket coffee go up more than the futures price suggests?: Retail lags and smooths the futures market rather than tracking it. Roasters buy forward, so a spike takes months to reach the shelf and then tends to stay once it arrives. Green coffee is also only part of a retail price: roasting, packaging, freight, labour and retail margin all rose over the same period. US packaged coffee prices jumped about 21% year on year in August 2025, the fastest such move in roughly three decades, well after the futures peak had begun.
Is climate change the reason coffee is expensive?: It is the reason the shocks keep coming, rather than the direct cause of any single price move. Arabica is narrowly adapted and genetically uniform, so heat and drought hit it hard, and modelling has consistently projected shrinking suitable growing area. The immediate cause of the 2024 to 2025 run was specific weather in specific places. The reason such weather keeps recurring, and why the market now prices a permanent risk premium, is structural.
Will coffee prices fall in 2027?: Nobody knows, and be sceptical of anyone confident. What is knowable: Brazil's 2026/27 crop is forecast at a record, which is downward pressure, and inventories are rebuilding from very low levels. Against that, arabica remains climate-exposed and EU deforestation rules add compliance cost from the end of 2026. The honest answer is that supply looks better than it did, and the structural risks that produced this run have not gone away.

References

Every factual claim in this article is drawn from the sources below. See the source library for how we grade evidence.

[1]Global price of Coffee, ArabicaFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · Official dataset · Tier 1 · Strong
[2]Global price of Coffee, RobustaFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · Official dataset · Tier 1 · Strong
[3]Coffee C Futures contract specificationsIntercontinental Exchange (ICE) · 2026 · Reference work · Tier 1 · Strong
[4]Coffee: commodity dataUSDA Foreign Agricultural Service · Official dataset · Tier 1 · Strong
[5]Coffee: World Markets and TradeUSDA · Official dataset · Tier 1 · Strong
[6]A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffeeClimatic Change · 2014 · Observational study · Tier 2 · Moderate
[7]The genome and population genomics of allopolyploid Coffea arabica reveal the diversification history of modern coffee cultivarsNature Genetics · 2024 · Official dataset · Tier 1 · Strong